By Yi Lin
Even though scientists have successfully hired the innovations of likelihood to handle the advanced challenge of prediction, sleek technological know-how nonetheless falls brief in constructing precise predictions with significant lead instances of zero-probability significant failures. the hot earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the severe want for stronger tools of predicting natural failures. Drawing on their huge useful adventure and theoretical stories, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist within the modern system of technological know-how to provide the knowing required to improve our ability to forecast and get ready for such events. featuring a sequence of recent understandings, theories, and a brand new process of technique, Irregularities and Prediction of significant failures simplifies the world-class challenge of prediction right into a sequence of initiatives that may be realized, mastered, and utilized within the research and prediction of approaching alterations in fabrics or fluids. those the world over revered authors introduce their novel approach to digitization for facing abnormal details, confirmed powerful for predicting transitional adjustments in occasions. in addition they: Unveil a brand new technique for forecasting zero-probability ordinary failures spotlight the explanations for universal forecasting disasters suggest a style for resolving the secret of nonlinearity comprise a number of real-life case reviews that illustrate the best way to safely digitize to be had details Supply proven tools for forecasting small-probability normal failures This authoritative source offers a scientific dialogue of the non-evolutionality of the fashionable approach of science—analyzing its functions and obstacles. by means of pertaining to the necessity for switch in a number of the basics in easy medical theories and suitable methodologies, this e-book offers the clinical group with the knowledge and technique required to forecast zero-probability significant mess ups with vastly superior accuracy.
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Extra resources for Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters (Systems Evaluation, Prediction and Decision-Making)
The world of learning does not seem to openly discuss this problem. Our understanding is that science is a concept of process; science is not the same as the complete maturity of the science, so that rooms always exist for the system of science to correct and improve itself over time. Second, the value of science is in its practical use, which is different from the value of beliefs. If a part of science is not practically applicable, then sooner or later that piece of knowledge will die out. Third, the reason science itself is referred to as science is its ability to challenge the accepted knowledge and human wisdom.
That is why when modern science has reached its state of the art, it has still not touched on the physical essence that eventual changes have on their causes and consequences. That explains why modern science still cannot predict the events after changes. Instead, these new © 2010 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC Embryonic Deficits of Quantitative Analysis Systems ◾ 25 events can only be called probabilistic. Even so, the determinacy of events themselves cannot be altered. As for the advantage of the prevalent statistical methods, it should be seen as methods of estimating the main tendencies of change using probabilities of events when mankind still has no clue about the rules of change of events.
No doubt, from the first push to the second stir, not only will science itself face the problem of transformation, but more importantly also will our very way of knowing have to go through fundamental changes. In this book, we openly announce the first time that events are not quantities and do not comply with the quantitative calculus of formal logic, that events are not random, that the problem of time challenges modern science, and other fundamental epistemological problems and propositions, and clearly point to the practical applicability of the digitization of information.
Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters (Systems Evaluation, Prediction and Decision-Making) by Yi Lin